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Calderón reshuffles cabinet with an eye to 2012 campaign

On Saturday, President Felipe Calderón announced a cabinet reshuffle, with an eye to the 2012 election. Juan Molinar Horcasitas, one of Calderón’s closest political advisers, resigned as Secretary of Communications and Transportation in order “to participate intensively in political-party work that is important for the life of the country” according to the President’s statement. He is being replaced by Dionisio Pérez-Jácome, who has been Undersecretary of Finance for Expenditures and who also briefly served as presidential chief of staff.

Molinar’s record as head of SCT was not stellar. The ministry continued to be bedeviled by technical problems in executing the government’s ambitious transportation infrastructure program. And little headway was made in the area of telecommunications policy, where the award of a large bloc of wireless spectrum to a Nextel-Televisa consortium was drowned in a sea of lawsuits and the withdrawal of Televisa.

The President also named congressman Roberto Gil Zuarth as his new private secretary, replacing Luis Felipe Bravo Mena.  Gil Zuarth had been widely seen as the President’s preferred candidate to take over the PAN in the party’s recent election of a new leader (an election won by Senator Gustavo Madero).  Bravo Mena is returning to the private sector.

As noted by El Universal’s Bajo Reserva column:  “Inside and outside his party, the PAN, the reading [of the changes] was the same: it is a signal that Calderón is not packing his bags and ready to give up power, perhaps to a political adversary. [The appointments] announced yesterday were a demonstration that he will give battle to everyone, including those within his own party.”

Georgina Kessel moves from Secretary of Energy to the President of Banobras, the development bank. She replaces Alonso García Tamés, who returns to the private sector.

José Antonio Meade, Undersecretary of Finance, becomes the new Secretary of Energy. Meade becomes the last of the senior level technocratic ‘old guard’ of the Ministry of Finance to leave, a process that started with the appointment of Ernesto Cordero as Finance Secretary in December 2009.

(Presidencia 1/8)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Government data shows 15,000 organized crime-related homicides in 2010

The government released for the first time comprehensive data (Mexico Segob homicide database) on killings related to organized crime. Ministry of Government spokesman Alejandro Poiré said the disclosure was “an exercise of transparency without precedent in Mexico, and with few precedents in the world.” The database includes killings month by month from December 2006 (when Felipe Calderón took office) through December 2010 for more than 1,100 municipalities across the country.

Some highlights from the government data:

  • Overall killings spiked to more than 15,000 in 2010, an increase of 59% from 2009. The government’s figures are significantly higher than those compiled (and published weekly) by the major newspapers. Reforma for example, recorded 11,583
  • On a quarterly basis, the peak was 2Q and 3Q 2010.  The rate of killings was down 10% in 4Q10, though the government was unwilling to say this was the beginning of a trend.
  • Since December 2006, 70% of the killings have been concentrated in just 85 municipalities, concentrated along the U.S. border and the Pacific coast.

Poiré’s presentation is here: SEGOB Presentation on Organized Crime Killings, Jan 11


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

PRI blocks calls for investigation of killings of women in Mexico State during Peña Nieto government

A report released by the Mexico State Justice Ministry on the 922 killings of women that took place between January 2005 and August 2010 essentially blamed the victims.  The report attributed the killings to: “Risks that some women place themselves in: consuming drugs, alcohol, or inhalants; working in bars where they mix with clients; going out alone at late hours; … becoming romantically involved with partners whom they don’t know well; being involved with multiple partners at the same time; belonging to youth gangs; belonging to criminal gangs or having relationships with gang members.”

The state PRI blocked calls for an investigation into the killings, which was condemned by both federal Secretary of Government Fernando Blake and the PRD. PRD Senator Claudia Corichi said, “Would undertaking investigations to unmask the assassins be such a dent in the armor of [Governor] Peña Nieto? What a shame that [the PRI] hides behind the argument that this is a politicized issue.” (Reforma 1/13)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Drug war death toll passes 10,000 for the year

Death toll by month. Source: Reforma

According to the tally kept by Reforma, the death toll from the drug war passed the 10,000 mark this week, reaching 10,035 killed since the start of the year. This surpasses 2009′s full year record by more than 50%, with almost two months still to go.  (On the sporadic occasions when the government has released it’s own statistics they have been significantly higher than the tallies kept by the news organizations.) Of Reforma’s total, 52 were military and 637 were police officers.  Chihuahua continues to be the bloodiest state, with 2,797 killed.  (Reforma 11/4)

Death toll by state. Source: Reforma


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Data: Drug war massacres

Following are the tallies in the large-scale killings or massacres that have occurred this year, pieced together from a variety of sources.


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Congress fails to act on IFE nominees

The Chamber of Deputies recessed for the long holiday weekend without electing three new board members for the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), by the legal deadline of October 30th. According to press reports, the PAN and PRI leadership had agreed to give two of the vacancies to PRI-approved nominees and one to a PAN-approved nominee, freezing out the PRD.  The supposed deal was attacked not only by the PRD but also by a number of Deputies in both the PAN and PRI.  (Such a deal in 2003 contributed to the IFE’s loss of credibility as an impartial arbiter in the wake of the 2006 presidential election.)  The vote is now scheduled for Wednesday, after Congress returns from the Day of the Dead holiday.  The three IFE board members to be elected to 9-year terms will be selected from a list of 17 candidates already approved as meeting the legal requirements for the position. (Reforma 10/29)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Pemex acknowledges production losses from security situation

In an interview, Carlos Morales Gil, the head of production and exploration for Pemex, acknowledged that the state oil company has had to shut in gas production of 150,000 cubic feet/day in the Burgos basin south of the Texas border because of the inability to ensure the security of some of the gas wells. (At US.50 per cu.ft., the lost production is the equivalent of US5,000 per day.) Morales said there had been no news of the six Pemex employees who were kidnapped on May 23d.  “We’ve increased security, together with the Ministry of Defense, in the installations in the northeastern zone of the country, which has allowed us to partially recover the production that was reduced. However, there are zones where it is not safe to go, because of the crime threats to our people,” he said. (Reforma 11/10)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Fourth massacre in a week: 7 killed in Mexico City

Seven youths between the ages of 19 and 28 were gunned down in central Mexico City, near the Tepito black market district. Two vehicles reportedly opened fire on a group of youths on the street late at night. This is the fourth massacre in Mexico in less than a week. As in the other cases, the authorities are attributing the killings to drug gangs, but have provided no substantive information. (Universal 10/28)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Senior security official arrested on drug trafficking charges

Francisco Javier Gómez Meza, the warden of the federal maximum security prison in Puente Grande, Jalisco was arrested by Mexican Interpol agents at the Mexico City airport and held on drug trafficking charges.  Specifically, he is charged with providing protection to the Beltrán Leyva cartel. Prior to his recent appointment as head of the prison, Gómez Meza was a senior official in the federal police and AFI, and is a close colleague of Secretary of Public Security Genaro García Luna.  In 2006, he was given an award by the U.S. DEA for his work against drug trafficking.  The Puente Grande prison is  best known for the 2001 escape of El Chapo Guzmán, Mexico’s most wanted narcotrafficker. Today, a judge ruled that there was sufficient evidence to continue to hold him. (Universal 10/29, 11/3, Reforma 11/3)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

Chamber of Deputies Ready to Approve Expenditure Law

On today’s legal deadline, the Chamber of Deputies appears set to approve the expenditure law for 2011.  The Finance Commission unanimously approved the expenditure proposal at 2am. The President’s request for increases for the security agencies, including the funds to create the unified police forces, were approved. The principal cause of delay in approving the expenditure package had been negotiations to allocate funds for highway construction between the different states. (Excelsior 11/15)


Under the Volcano: Notes on Mexican Politics

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